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Women, Wisdom & Wealth: Planning during recession times
“If wrinkles must be written upon our brows, let them not be written upon the heart. The spirit should never grow old.” - John Kenneth Galbraith, Economist, 1908-2006.
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Do you remember the 1991 hit by The Clash, a British classic rock group, titled “Should I Stay or Should I Go Now”? This song captures the question some investors have been asking the stock market lately.
“Should I stay or should I go now — If I go there will be trouble, an’ if I stay it will be double.” Let’s see how this may apply to the market.
Since World War II, there have been approximately 10 recessions, by the classic definition, in the United States. The recessions have lasted anywhere from six to sixteen months and the severity of each recession is different.
The classic definition of “recession” is a decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two or more consecutive quarters. Many economists look at changes in the unemployment rate, consumer confidence and other indicators.
The metrics used to determine a recession are backward looking so no one knows they are in a recession until it has already happened.
The stock market tends to be forward looking so the market is often the leading economic indicator letting investors know that there may be trouble ahead.
If you, as an investor, were to miss the best 10 days in the market over the last 10 years, your average annualized return would have fallen from 6.57 percent to 1.58 percent. If you missed the 30 best days over the last 10 years, your average annualized return would have declined to -5.41 percent.
The returns after a recession and after a correction have exceeded the long term market average by a wide margin. Long term discipline becomes important because it becomes statistically improbable to time getting out of the market at the high point or getting in the market at the low point.
Missing just a few choice days in the history of the market can make a huge difference in investors’ returns. The table illustrates the dramatic loss in performance by missing some of the best days in the market. The major difficulty is not the getting out; it is the timing of getting back in. This can be very harmful to your investments.
The penalty for missing the market
Investment pattern over a 10-year period
Average Annual returns - Growth of $10,000
Fully invested: 6.57 percent - $18,896
Miss 10 best days: 1.58 percent - $11,697
Miss 20 best days: -2.18 percent - $8,019
Miss 30 best days: -5.41 percent - $5,734
While no one can predict the bottom of the market, history shows us that the U.S. economy is resilient, and that rebounds take place quickly.
Missing just a few of the leading rebound days can make a significant difference in the performance of a portfolio. The only way to be assured of capturing all of the market upside is to remain fully invested, using a long-term investment plan with a portfolio diversified over several asset classes and investment styles.
Saving money helps to alleviate fear. Emergencies happen to all of us, from job loss to a hole in the roof. Having an emergency fund provides peace of mind...
According to ShareBuilder Women & Investing Survey 76 percent of men are concerned that they are not saving or investing enough to meet their investment objective. The number rises to 82 percent when women are asked if they are concerned about saving or investing enough to meet their investment objectives.
Are you part of the overwhelming majority who are concerned, or have you built a strong foundation for your financial security?
Either way, it’s never too late.
Having a little nest egg of short term liquid investments may allow you to ride through the ups and downs rather than liquidating at an inopportune time. FEAR can stand for “False Evidence Appears Real” or it can stand for “Face Everything And Reap Rewards”.
Addressing the reality of your own situation and enlisting the assistance of a trusted financial advisor gives you the chance to stay in the game. The U.S. has stayed open for business through the Great Depression, 14 recessions, terrorist attacks and other political upheaval. There’s no need to head for the hills if you have a sound plan.
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Darcie Guerin is a financial adviser and branch manager at Raymond James & Associates Inc. at 606 Bald Eagle Drive, suite 401, Marco Island. Contact her at Darcie.Guerin@raymondjames.com, 389-1041 or toll-free (866) 343-0882.

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